After choosing from over 140 models and more than 1600 model-years, the online product allows the user to input a number of characteristics that add or deduct value from an aircraft. Based on an extensive database of past selling prices and market conditions we calculate an expected current value for the aircraft.
From this foundation we forecast the real dollar value of the aircraft in quarterly increments for 7 years. (The application can provide up to 15 year forecasts.)
The forecast is derived from a three stage statistical model. Macroeconomic and aircraft market data provide the foundation for an econometric analysis used to forecast aircraft cohort prices as a function of forecasted macro and industry production variables. Also, in-model quarterly depreciation effects are estimated. Finally, short-term price momentum effects are also estimated using time on market data and other short-term price drivers. The model's outputs are subjected to dynamic backtesting to fine tune the parameters. These effects are combined with aircraft-specific price determinants (such as compatibility with noise requirements and fuel efficiency) to derive a forecasted series of quarterly prices. This analysis is available online at AirPlanePrice.com
More detailed plane-specific appraisals and forecasts are available from Aviation Management Systems, Inc.
We also provide risk analysis using the price forecasts as the basis for Monte Carlo simulations. Lease and lending revenue risks are quantified.
