Aircraft Valuation and Price
Forecasting
Please contact us for
a free trial period
Visit
http://www.AirPlanePrice.com and click on the
DEMO.
FutureMetrics
in association with Aviation Management
Systems has created an analysis product for
estimating the current value and
the forecasted prices for more than 1500 unique aircraft.
The user can input a number of characteristics that add or deduct value
from an aircraft. Based on an extensive database of past selling prices
and market conditions we calculate an expected current value for the
aircraft.
From this foundation we forecast the real dollar value of the aircraft in
quarterly increments for 7 years. (The application can provide up to
15 year forecasts.)
The forecast is derived from a three stage statistical model. Macroeconomic and aircraft
market data provide the foundation for an econometric analysis used to
forecast aircraft cohort prices as a function of forecasted macro and industry
production variables.
Also, in-model quarterly depreciation effects are estimated. Finally,
short-term price momentum effects are also estimated using time on market
data and other short-term price drivers. The model's outputs are
subjected to dynamic backtesting to fine tune the parameters. These effects are combined with
aircraft-specific price determinants (such as compatibility with noise
requirements and fuel efficiency) to derive a forecasted series of quarterly
prices. This analysis is available online at
AirPlanePrice.com
More detailed
plane-specific appraisals and forecasts are available from
Aviation Management Systems, Inc.
We also provide risk analysis using the price
forecasts as the basis for Monte Carlo simulations. Lease and lending
revenue risks are quantified.
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